Swing State New Hampshire?

On the presidential level, Obama leads McCain 50-43, and his lead is growing, but the Congressional races show closer races and Republicans closing on a number of them, according to this new Concord Monitor poll:

The poll showed Democrats holding an edge in every major state race. In the Senate race, former governor Jeanne Shaheen retains her long-held lead over Republican incumbent Sen. John Sununu, 50 to 43 percent. That race continues to tighten, however, with Shaheen holding steady at 50 percent and Sununu gaining 2 points since last month’s poll.

In the House, both incumbent Democrats have widened their leads, though both fall short of the 50 percent mark seen as the key threshold of safety for an incumbent. In the 2nd District, Rep. Paul Hodes leads Republican Jennifer Horn, 49 to 35 percent. Both Hodes, a Concord lawyer, and Horn, a Nashua talk show host, have gained slightly since the September poll, which showed their margin at 47 to 34.

In the 1st District, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter leads former representative Jeb Bradley, 48 to 43 percent, a margin at the outer edge of the 6-point margin of error in the House race polls. Since last month’s poll, Bradley’s support has held at 43 percent, while Shea-Porter has picked up 4 points.

The numbers don’t look too good for Jennifer Horn, but both Sununu and Bradley seem to be within striking distance.  New Hampshire’s known for having a lot of sudden surprises (think of Clinton’s primary win in 2008), so these races could swing the Republicans’ way.


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