Iowa or New Hampshire?

I’ll play the standard pundit here and offer a cute (and maybe inappropriate) dualism: is tomorrow going to be like the Democratic race in Iowa or in New Hampshire?  In Iowa, Obama solidified a slight, and growing, polling lead into an 8-point margin of victory.  In New Hampshire, he had an on average 8-point lead heading into election day, but Clinton ended up winning by about 3 points.

What happened in NH?  Interestingly, the RCP average showed Obama at about 38%; he ended up with 36%.  So his defeat was not only about losing voters but about undecided voters breaking overwhelmingly for Clinton, who had an average of 30% in the polling but ended up winning with 39%.

Let’s be optimistic on the day before the election: according to the (self-proclaimed) most accurate pollster of the 2004 election, the Obama/McCain/Undecided numbers are 46.7/44.6/8.7.  That’s a lot of undecideds!  They could break for McCain/the Republicans.  Obama in a number of battleground states and a number of Democratic candidates in closely contested races for the Senate and House also fall below 50% in a number of recent polls.

Going into the voting booth, plenty of undecided voters will ask themselves, do I really want to hand over complete power to a party whose leader wants my energy costs to skyrocket, which has done such a great job overseeing government-sponsored entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and whose leadership wants to shut down debate over the public airwaves?  The answer to that question may affect more races than the one between Obama and McCain.


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