Posts Tagged ‘Filibuster’

It’s Not Over Yet

November 8, 2008

There are still three contested Senate elections: Stevens in AK, Chambliss in GA, and Coleman in MN.  They’re still going through absentee and contested ballots in Alaska, Chambliss will be heading into a runoff in December, and Coleman’s stuck in a very close recount.  All three could use money and on-the-ground support.

Stevens is asking for $75,000 more to cover costs and could always use more help from lawyers/ballot observers.  Check out his website to see how to help.  (Even if you don’t like Stevens but are sympathetic to Republicans, you might consider helping him.  If Stevens wins, he could resign or by expelled from the Senate.  A special election would find a replacement to fill out the rest of his term; there’s some controversy about the powers of the Gov. of Alaska, Sarah Palin, to appoint a temporary replacement.)

Coleman’s leading Franken by just a few hundred votes in Minnesota.  Franken’s trying to whip up cash and volunteer time from his supporters.  You can help Coleman counter Franken here.  With numbers this close, a few votes here or there could make a huge difference.

Chambliss will be the longest-term commitment.  Everyone seems to think that a runoff is very likely, since no candidate got over 50% of the vote.  Chambliss led his Democratic challenger 49.8 to 46.8, but don’t expect this runoff to be a cakewalk.  The Democrat’s already using Barack Obama as a way of trying to drum up support, and you can bet that Democrats across the nation will be willing to pour money and effort into this race if they think it could pull them over the 60-vote mark in the Senate.  On the Republican side, McCain has already confirmed that he will be campaigning for Chambliss, and Palin might help out, too.  The date of the runoff is December 2.  You can volunteer with Chambliss’s campaign here and contribute here.

If Republicans win at least one of these seats, they can keep Democrats below 60 votes in the Senate.  Winning all three would give the Republicans 43 votes, a workable minority.  (If the Democrats push Joe Lieberman too far, he could decide to caucus with the Republicans, giving them 44 votes.)  If you’re serious about putting the brakes on or seriously interrogating Barack Obama’s agenda, here’s your chance.

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Read ‘Em and Weep

October 16, 2008

I can’t really quarrel too much with this ranking of Senate Seats by Real Clear Politics ordered by which is most likely to switch parties:

1. VA: (Open – R)
2. NM: (Open – R)
3. AK: (Stevens – R)
4. CO: (Open – R)
5. NH: (Sununu – R)
6. NC: (Dole – R)
7. OR: (Smith – R)
8. MN: (Coleman – R)
9. KY: (McConnell – R)
10. GA: (Chambliss – R)
11. MS: (Wicker – R)
12. LA: (Landrieu – D)
13. ME: (Collins – R)
14. NJ: (Lautenberg – D)
15. NE: (Open – R)

A nitpick: Chambliss’s seat might be slightly more likely to switch than McConnell’s.  But the main story’s the same: it’s a bad place to be in when 11 of the 15 most likely seats to switch are held by Republicans.  And right now, looking at current polls, here’s how I’d rate the chances of contested seats held by Republicans:

Very Likely Democrat (Switch)

1. Virginia

2. New Mexico

Lean Democrat (Switch)

3. AK

4. CO

5. NH

6. NC

7. OR

8. MN

Toss-Up

9. GA

Lean Republican

10. KY

11. MS

Likely Republican

12. ME

13. NE

Assuming they don’t lose any seats (not a risky assumption at this point), Democrats will need to sweep 9 or 10 of these 13 seats in order to gain a filibuster-proof majority.  If things keep heading south for the GOP, other seats could become vulnerable.  Let’s see if we can get a few more seats leaning Republican.

A few random thoughts:

Dole (NC)’s support has collapsed since this summer.  Can she get her mojo back, or has she decisively lost support here?

Coleman (MN)’s support seems to have just collapsed in October.  He still might have time to push back against Al Franken.

Ted Stevens in AK could still pull this one off.  Scandal charges, not political positions, are pulling him down, and he’s a tough fighter.  One of the most senior figures in Alaska politics, Stevens seems so far to be holding his own.

Sununu (NH) has managed to make his race close.  His Democratic opponent’s support has fallen from earlier in the year; she used to have double digits, but her lead’s now fallen below 10.  Sununu could gain the momentum.